POWDER FOR COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO! THE SIERRA MAY NAB SEVERAL FEET NEXT WEEK.

SUMMARY:

Light snow will be falling today in the Tetons (2-4) Thursday. Moderate snow is likely for much of Colorado on Friday that also impacts New Mexico into Saturday. Heavy high elevation snowfall is most likely next week in the Sierra that spreads out leftovers into the Rockies in the extended projection. New England just nabbed 7-13 inches of powder in the previous 24 hr.

If you remain in the Tetons a light refresh will take place throughout the day with 2-4 inches most likely by the last chair Thursday. The centerpiece to view is Colorado and New Mexico with a moderate system pushing in late Thursday into the San Juans. I pointed out the other day that the GFS was the optimist and the Euro the Pessimist. Today, the designs flipped with the Euro calling for a moderate powder day by late AM Friday with the GFS pressing the majority of the snow south of Denver and along the Palmer Divide. The NAM is screaming “deep powder day” by last chair Friday. I am inclined to side by the Euro who divides the distinction between all the models.

Bottom Line: Snow will begin in the San Juan Mountains of Colorado by 11 PM with SW wind direction. Light to moderate amounts are possible north of Durango (Silverton, Purgatory, Telluride (Wildcard). Light snow will also be falling in the Elks near Aspen, and Crested Butte as moisture pushes north under the SW flow. It’s likely mountains on the western side of Colorado nab 3-5 inches for very first chair Friday. The majority of the action by Friday early morning will be preferring the eastern side of Colorado.

For the Front, Variety winds will be primarily from the north that must favor the Continental Divide mainly 3 AM to 8 PM Friday. Peak snowfall will be during the early morning hours at or just after the snow reports. You might get a 2-3 inch report followed by another 3-5 inches during the day. My forecast is for 5-8 inches for the majority of resorts along I-70 favoring locations east of Vail Pass. It’s most likely that southern Summit score higher amounts (Breckenridge, Keystone, A-Basin) than it’s neighbors north of I-70? Berthoud and Loveland Pass must score comparable quantities Some extra light snow will be falling Friday night that will bring storm overalls a little greater. Finest times to ride powder will be Friday while it is snowing in the majority of those locations.

Below: University of Utah plumes showing a mean total of 8 inches for the Eisenhower Tunnel by 00Z (4 PM MST). You can see slightly higher amounts by Saturday early morning (10 ). There is a decent amount of lines listed below the mean (Outliers), giving me only moderate self-confidence. Lines below the mean =less snow. As pointed out above the GFS is the pessimist so it’s possible that lower amounts end up falling Friday. The Plumes tend to be overdone rather. Berthoud Pass had comparable quantities. Vail Pass had 3-7. I think 4-8 is a winner for Top County and its possible higher amounts fall south of I-70.

Listed below: Positive NAM showing moderate to heavy snow for Colorado and NM (6-11).

Below: The cynical GFS showing much less snow for Top County (2-4).

The Euro divides the difference in between the NAM and GFS (4-8).

New Mexico reaps the leftovers beginning Friday and ending Saturday morning. It’s possible that Taos or Ski Santa Fe report 3-7 inches by Saturday morning (Ride late Friday or early Saturday).

The Rockies dry out this weekend and early next week. The designs are pointing to an extremely damp pattern setting up for the Sierra start on Monday next week. A number of warm and wet systems will push into the Sierra Monday-Thursday next week. The upper elevations of the ski locations may see an excess of 2-3 feet of snow throughout this period. Warmer temps might restrict snowfall at the bases. Colder temps are likely to pattern in by midweek bringing snowfall to the bases. Considerable snowfall may continue into Thursday early morning. The southern Sierra might at first be preferred early next week with the northern areas more beneficial Wednesday/Thursday (Too early to predict).

The leftovers, split and edge into the Rockies bringing several periods of light or moderate snow to the Wasatch, Tetons and most of Colorado eventually Tuesday-Friday. This might end up being several occasions of light or moderate snow that build up perfectly by the end of next week. I am not sure there will be any single deep event in the Rockies. I am confident of numerous deep events for the Sierra.

Below: Designs show a number of feet of snow at upper elevations of the Sierra through Thursday.

STATEMENT:

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